Basis Points Health Q1 2026 · Issue No. 1
The Quarterly Briefing on AI Healthcare Capital

Artificial
Intelligence
in Healthcare

A comprehensive analysis of private equity and venture capital activity across AI-enabled healthcare companies — deal flow, valuation trends, sector composition, and forward outlook.

$14.2B Total 2025 Funding
54% AI Share of Funding
482 VC Deals in 2025
+35% YoY Capital Growth
March 2026 Edition
01 Executive Summary

The AI healthcare investment landscape reached a decisive inflection point in 2025. After years of speculation, capital is now flowing with conviction toward companies that demonstrate measurable clinical and operational impact — not merely technological novelty.

"AI-native upstarts attracted huge rounds at unprecedented speed, a handful of companies broke the IPO drought, and private equity made major moves, signaling real bets on an emerging 'winner' class."
— Rock Health, 2025 Annual Funding Report
Market Headline

$14.2 Billion Deployed — The Highest Since 2022

U.S. digital health startups raised $14.2 billion in 2025, a 35% increase from 2024's $10.5 billion and the strongest annual figure in three years. Critically, this growth was not broad-based: deal count actually fell from 509 to 482, while average deal size climbed from $20.7M to $29.3M. Capital is concentrating rapidly.

AI-enabled companies captured 54% of total funding, up dramatically from 37% in 2024. These companies commanded a 19% premium on average deal size, and at the mega-deal tier ($100M+), AI firms claimed 9 of 11 rounds — representing 42% of all investment dollars.

The Structural Shift

From Growth-at-Any-Cost to Fundamentals-First

The era of speculative digital health investing is over. Investors — particularly the megafunds whose participation dramatically amplifies round sizes — are now requiring peer-reviewed validation, clear paths to profitability, and evidence of rapid provider adoption before committing capital.

This "fundamentals-first" environment has bifurcated the market sharply. The top quartile of companies attracted outsized rounds at speed; 35% of all 2025 deals were flat or down rounds, and unlabeled bridge financing remained elevated at 34% of deal count. Many companies from the 2020-2021 vintage are still working through valuation overhangs.

02 Market Metrics at a Glance
$14.2B Total 2025 VC Funding ↑ 35% vs. 2024
$29.3M Avg. Deal Size (2025) ↑ from $20.7M in 2024
482 Total Deal Count ↓ from 509 in 2024
42% Share from $100M+ Rounds Highest since 2021
$83.7M Avg. AI Series C Size vs. $52.1M non-AI
$265.7M Avg. Series D+ w/ Megafund vs. $172M without
107 H1 2025 M&A Deals ↑ Nearly 2× 2024 pace
5 2025 Digital Health IPOs After 2-year drought
Annual Funding Trend

Digital Health VC Investment — 2021 to 2025

2021
$29.1B
2022
$15.3B
2023
$10.9B
2024
$10.5B
2025
$14.2B

Source: Rock Health 2025 Annual Report. Note: 2021 peak reflects pandemic-era speculative environment.

03 Notable Deal Register — 2025

The following represents the largest and most strategically significant funding rounds closed by AI healthcare companies during 2025, sourced from Rock Health, Crunchbase, and sector reports.

Company Amount Lead Investor(s) Sector Model
Oura AI-powered wearable health monitoring ring
Series E
$900M Undisclosed Clinical B2CDirect-to-consumer wearable
Strive Health AI-enabled kidney care management platform
Series D
$550M Undisclosed Clinical B2BSells to payers & health systems
Abridge AI clinical documentation & ambient scribe (two rounds)
Series D + Series E
$550M Various; $5.3B valuation (Series E) Admin B2BSells to health systems & hospitals
Judi Health Health tech & pharmacy benefit administration
Series F
$400M Undisclosed Admin B2BSells to employers & payers
Lila Sciences Scientific superintelligence platform for drug discovery
Seed + Series A (×3 rounds)
$550M General Catalyst, Flagship Pioneering, NVentures; $1.3B val. Drug Dev. B2BPlatform licensed to pharma & biotech
Truveta World's largest real-world health data platform for drug discovery
Growth Round
$320M Health system consortium Data B2BData sold to pharma & researchers
Abridge AI clinical documentation — Series E (standalone)
Series E
$300M Undisclosed; $5.3B valuation Admin B2BSells to health systems & hospitals
Function Health Comprehensive lab testing and AI health insights
Series B
$298M Undisclosed Diagnostics B2CMembership sold direct to consumer
Innovaccer AI healthcare cloud — data platform & analytics
Series F
$275M Undisclosed (January 2025) Data B2BSells to health systems & ACOs
Ambience Healthcare AI operating system for healthcare documentation
Series C
$243M Undisclosed Admin B2BSells to clinics & health systems
OpenEvidence AI-powered clinical decision support & search for physicians
Series B
$210M Undisclosed; $3.5B valuation Clinical B2B2CFree to physicians; monetizes via pharma & institutions
Commure Ambient AI platform for healthcare automation
Growth Financing
$200M Undisclosed Admin B2BSells to health systems & clinics
Hippocratic AI Safety-first LLMs for non-diagnostic healthcare tasks
Series C
$126M General Catalyst, Andreessen Horowitz, NVentures; $1.64B val. Clinical B2BSells to payers, providers & pharma
Duos AI-powered member activation & benefits execution
Strategic Growth Equity
$130M FTV Capital (October 2025) Admin B2BSells to Medicare Advantage plans
Honest Health AI-enabled tech tools for primary care providers
Growth Financing
$140M NewSpring (lead) Clinical B2BSells to independent primary care practices
04 Sector Composition & Capital Allocation
H1 2025 — Top Funded Value Propositions

Where Capital Is Flowing

Non-Clinical Workflow
$1.9B
Clinical Workflow
$1.9B
Data Infrastructure
$893M
Drug Discovery
~$720M
Diagnostics / Imaging
~$520M

Source: Rock Health H1 2025 Funding Report

AI Premium Analysis

AI vs. Non-AI Deal Sizes by Stage

Avg. All Rounds
$34.4M
Non-AI Avg.
$18.8M
AI Series A
$24.4M
Non-AI Series A
$15.6M
AI Series B
$54.8M
Non-AI Series B
$39.6M
AI Series C
$83.7M
Non-AI Series C
$52.1M

AI-enabled companies commanded an 83% premium on average deal size vs. non-AI peers across all stages.

05 Private Equity Activity & M&A Dynamics

Private equity has moved beyond observation into active deal-making, deploying a distinct roll-up strategy: combining AI-native capabilities with legacy healthcare services platforms to drive simultaneous revenue growth and margin expansion.

PE Deal Spotlight — May 2025

New Mountain Capital: The "Smarter Technologies" Roll-Up

New Mountain Capital executed one of the most significant AI healthcare PE transactions of 2025, combining Access Healthcare (a revenue cycle management and business process outsourcing firm) with the clinical AI technology of SmarterDx and Thoughtful.ai to form Smarter Technologies. The firm subsequently acquired Machinify, weaving its AI capabilities into a combined entity that also included legacy payment integrity providers Apixio, Varis, and The Rawlings Group. This transaction exemplifies the "AI-native + legacy infrastructure" roll-up thesis gaining traction across PE strategies.

PE Deal Spotlight — 2025

Waystar Acquires Iodine Software

Waystar's strategic acquisition of Iodine — a clinical AI company focused on revenue integrity and documentation improvement — represents the "layered cake strategy" Bessemer Venture Partners has identified as the dominant M&A rationale. Rather than a speculative bet on future AI value, Waystar sought to own AI capabilities delivering immediate margin improvement rather than build them from scratch.

M&A Spotlight — October 2025

Innovaccer Acquires Story Health ($275M-backed acquirer)

Armed with $275 million in Series F funding, Innovaccer acquired Story Health — a startup helping providers care for patients with heart failure. This illustrates the bifurcated M&A market: well-capitalized AI platforms acquiring cash-starved but clinically validated startups that raised last in 2022, unable to access 2025's difficult VC environment for earlier-stage companies.

M&A Volume
107

M&A deals in H1 2025 alone — on pace to nearly double the 121 deals recorded in all of 2024.

Strategic Rationale
400

Global health tech M&A deals in 2025, up from 350 in 2024. PE firms recognize AI simultaneously drives revenue growth and margin expansion.

M&A Surge
+61%

Rise in M&A activity in 2025, per Visible.vc analysis, making strategic acquisition increasingly the primary exit path as IPO markets remain selective.

06 Public Market Exits — IPO Tracker

2025 marked the reopening of the digital health IPO window after a two-year near-total drought. Five companies reached public markets, adding $36.6 billion in combined market capitalization — all with strong unit economics and demonstrated profitability trajectories.

Hinge Health
Digital musculoskeletal care & physical therapy
ExchangeNYSE
IPO DateMay 2025
Post-IPO Trend↑ Above IPO Price
AI FocusCare automation
Omada Health
Virtual chronic condition management platform
ExchangeNASDAQ
IPO DateJune 2025
Post-IPO Trend~ Near IPO Price
AI FocusChronic care AI
HeartFlow
AI-powered cardiac imaging analysis platform
ExchangePublic (2025)
Post-IPO Trend↑ Above IPO Price
AI FocusCardiac diagnostics
Carlsmed
AI-personalized spine surgery planning
IPO Date2025
AI FocusSurgical AI
Profusa
Implantable biosensor continuous health monitoring
IPO Date2025
AI FocusBiosensor analytics
2026 Watch List
Potential IPO candidates per Rock Health
AledadeValue-based care
Maven ClinicWomen's health AI
Virta HealthMetabolic reversal
ZelisPayment integrity
Health tech stocks rose 18% in 2025 — matching the NASDAQ and S&P 500 — yet still trade at a 10–20% discount to cloud software peers despite carrying twice the revenue growth and stronger free cash flow margins.
07 Investment Thesis — High-Conviction Themes

The Structural Bull Case

1

Ambient Documentation: Fastest Healthcare Tech Adoption Ever

AI ambient scribes — technology that automatically documents clinical encounters — has achieved 30–40% physician adoption rates, with leading health systems reporting up to 90% utilization. Rock Health characterizes this as faster adoption than any other technology in healthcare history. Abridge ($550M), Ambience Healthcare ($243M), and Commure ($200M) are the principal beneficiaries.

2

AI-Enabled Drug Discovery: Platform, Not Speculation

Generative AI's ability to compress the drug discovery timeline is attracting serious capital. Lila Sciences raised $550M across three rounds in seven months at a $1.3B valuation. Investors include Flagship Pioneering and General Catalyst — both with deep healthcare conviction. GV and Alphabet participation signals long-horizon bets on platform-level value creation.

3

Revenue Cycle & Payment Integrity: PE-Grade Cash Flow Characteristics

AI applied to revenue cycle management, prior authorization, and claims processing creates defensible, recurring revenue streams with clear ROI — ideal for PE roll-up strategies. New Mountain Capital's Smarter Technologies consolidation and Waystar's Iodine acquisition both target this theme. Gross margin expansion is demonstrable within 12 months of AI integration.

Risk Factors & Headwinds

I

Valuation Bifurcation & Down-Round Risk

35% of 2025 deals were flat or down rounds. Unlabeled bridge financings remain elevated at 34% — a proxy for distress. Companies from the 2020–2021 vintage carrying valuation overhangs face difficult choices: strategic sale (often at a discount), bridge financing, or dilutive resets. This creates both risk for existing LPs and opportunity for patient new capital.

II

Regulatory & Policy Uncertainty

The Trump administration's Medicaid reform agenda, evolving AI transparency requirements, and the SEC filing backlog following the 2025 government shutdown create material near-term uncertainty. Digital health companies with significant Medicaid-reimbursed revenue face coverage cliff risks. AI algorithmic accountability regulation is emerging as a distinct compliance burden.

III

Compressed Fundraising Timelines & Capital Burn

Several AI healthcare companies raised multiple large rounds in compressed timeframes (e.g., Lila Sciences: $550M across three rounds in seven months). Rock Health flags this as carrying inherent risk: insufficient time between rounds to demonstrate meaningful commercial progress increases the probability of future valuation pressure or bridge dependency.

08 2026 Outlook & Forward Positioning
Near-Term Catalysts

What to Watch in 2026

Agentic AI — systems capable of autonomously navigating complex insurance rules, clinical protocols, and prior authorization workflows — is the most significant emerging investment theme. Investors are moving from simple task automation to multi-step autonomous agents that operate end-to-end within healthcare workflows. Capital is concentrating at this frontier.

The "trust gap" between health tech fundamentals and public market valuations is expected to narrow over 12–24 months as the second-generation cohort of public companies (Hinge Health, HeartFlow, Waystar, Tempus) builds a sustained track record. Bessemer projects this gap closure could unlock significantly higher valuation multiples for the category.

IPO candidates Aledade, Maven Clinic, Virta Health, and Zelis are being watched closely. Policy and macro conditions, including Medicaid reform uncertainty, represent the primary gatekeeping variable on timing.

Structural Positioning

Where PE & VC Are Deploying

High Conviction
Agentic AI for prior authorization & RCM; Ambient documentation at scale; AI drug discovery platforms; Hospital workflow automation
Selective / Watch
Telehealth platforms without AI differentiation; Consumer health without proven reimbursement path; Single-indication diagnostic tools
Avoid / Caution
2020–2021 vintage companies with unresolved valuation overhangs; Heavy Medicaid revenue exposure amid reform risk; AI "wrapper" products without proprietary data moats
About Basis Points Health
Who We Are

Basis Points Health is an independent quarterly publication tracking private equity and venture capital investment into AI-native healthcare companies. We write for operators, investors, and strategists who need the signal without the noise.

We are not affiliated with any investment fund, healthcare system, or technology vendor. No company pays to appear in our deal register or investment thesis sections. Our editorial positions reflect our own analysis of publicly available data and industry reporting.

Each issue covers one full quarter of deal activity — funding rounds, PE transactions, M&A, and public market exits — with a consistent analytical framework that makes issues comparable over time. We believe the healthcare AI market is large enough and fast-moving enough that a rigorous, design-quality quarterly record is genuinely useful.

Who This Is For

Investors & Allocators

LPs, GPs, and family offices tracking the healthcare AI category across venture and PE. Use this as a quarterly deal log and market temperature check alongside your own sourcing.

Founders & Operators

AI healthcare startup founders tracking competitive funding, comparable valuations, and which investors are active in your category. Understanding the capital landscape is part of running the business.

Health System & Payer Strategists

Corporate development and strategy teams at health systems, payers, and pharma companies tracking which AI companies are attracting capital and why — and what that signals about where the market is going.

Analysts & Journalists

A curated, design-quality primary reference for the healthcare AI funding landscape — with deal data, sector breakdowns, and investment thesis analysis in one place.

Methodology & Deal Selection Criteria

Every deal in the register meets a defined set of criteria. We publish these openly so readers can assess what is and isn't included — and flag anything we may have missed.

Criterion Our Standard Rationale
Minimum Round Size $100M+ for full deal register entry; $25M+ tracked but not individually profiled Below $25M, deals are numerous and signal is low. We track the full market but profile only rounds large enough to indicate conviction at fund scale.
AI Definition Company must use machine learning, large language models, computer vision, or predictive analytics as a core product component — not merely as a back-end feature We exclude companies that use AI incidentally (e.g., basic analytics dashboards) and include only those where AI is a primary value driver. Borderline cases are noted.
Geographic Scope U.S.-headquartered or U.S.-listed companies; global rounds involving a U.S. lead investor are noted separately Reimbursement environments, regulatory frameworks, and exit markets differ significantly. U.S.-focus allows like-for-like comparison across issues.
Data Sources Rock Health annual and mid-year reports; Crunchbase; company press releases; SEC filings; STAT News, Fierce Healthcare, Healthcare Brew, and BioPharma Dive coverage We triangulate across at least two sources for every round above $100M. Figures represent announced amounts; undisclosed tranches are noted.
Valuation Figures Post-money valuations reported only when publicly disclosed by company or investor We do not estimate or model valuations. Undisclosed valuations are left blank rather than approximated.
Business Model Classification B2B (sells to organizations), B2C (sells direct to consumers), B2B2C (free or subsidized to end user; monetizes via enterprise), B2G (sells to government/CMS) Model classification matters for margin structure, sales cycle, and exit comparables. Classifications reflect primary revenue model at time of round.
What We Exclude Pure biotech / therapeutics without a software AI component; medical device companies without an AI data layer; health insurance carriers; hospital systems raising capital These segments have distinct valuation frameworks, investor bases, and exit markets. Mixing them with AI software companies distorts category-level analysis.

See something missing or incorrect? We welcome corrections. Contact details will be published with our second issue.

Regulatory & Policy Tracker

The regulatory and reimbursement environment is the single most important external variable for AI healthcare investment returns. This tracker covers the key FDA, CMS, and legislative developments as of Q1 2026.

Item Detail Status
FDA AI/ML-Based SaMD Action PlanOngoing software-as-medical-device framework FDA has cleared over 950 AI/ML-enabled medical devices as of early 2026, with radiology and cardiology comprising the largest share. The agency is developing a predetermined change control plan framework allowing iterative AI model updates without full re-clearance — a major unlock for SaMD companies. In Progress
CMS Reimbursement: AI-Assisted DiagnosticsCoverage for AI radiology CADe/CADx tools CMS finalized reimbursement codes for AI-assisted colonoscopy (CPT 0723T) and continues to expand coverage for AI-assisted imaging analysis. Reimbursement parity with traditional diagnostics remains the key bottleneck for AI diagnostics adoption at scale. Active
ONC HTI-1 Rule — TEFCA & InteroperabilityHealth data sharing requirements The ONC's HTI-1 final rule, effective 2024–2025, expands information blocking prohibitions and accelerates TEFCA implementation. For AI companies dependent on EHR data access, this materially reduces friction in data acquisition — a structural tailwind for clinical AI platforms. Passed
Prior Authorization Reform (CMS Final Rule)Mandatory payer PA timeline reductions CMS finalized rules requiring payers to respond to prior authorization requests within 72 hours (urgent) and 7 days (standard) by 2026. This creates immediate commercial urgency for AI prior authorization automation vendors — a direct catalyst for companies like Cohere Health, Hippocratic AI, and similar. Active 2026
Medicaid Unwinding & Reform RiskTrump administration restructuring The administration's Medicaid restructuring proposals — including per-capita caps and work requirements — create material revenue risk for AI companies whose payer customers are heavily Medicaid-exposed. This is the most significant near-term policy headwind in the sector. Extent of implementation remains uncertain as of Q1 2026. Uncertain
EU AI Act — Healthcare ProvisionsHigh-risk AI classification for medical AI The EU AI Act classifies most clinical AI as "high-risk," requiring conformity assessments, post-market monitoring, and transparency obligations. U.S. companies planning European expansion face meaningful compliance overhead. For pure-play U.S. companies, near-term impact is limited — but global ambitions carry regulatory cost. In Force 2025
HIPAA AI Amendment ProposalsAI-specific data use and consent rules HHS has signaled interest in HIPAA amendments addressing AI training data use, de-identification standards for LLM training, and patient consent requirements for AI-assisted care decisions. No final rule as of Q1 2026, but proposed guidance is expected. This is a material watch item for companies training models on patient data. Proposed
Exits, Acqui-Hires & Notable Failures — 2024–2025

A complete picture of the market requires accounting for both sides of the ledger. The following documents the most significant digital health shutdowns, distressed sales, and acqui-hires from the 2024–2025 period — many of them 2021-vintage companies that could not sustain their raise pace in a tighter funding environment.

The failures of 2024–2025 are not a refutation of AI healthcare investing — they are the market completing its correction from 2021 excess. The companies that survive this filter are structurally stronger for it.
Shutdown
Olive AI
Once valued at $4B, Olive raised $902M across its life and was one of the most prominent AI healthcare automation companies of the 2020–2021 era. It shut down and sold its assets piecemeal in 2023–2024 after failing to achieve sustainable unit economics. The most prominent AI healthcare failure of the cycle.
Total raised: ~$902M · Peak valuation: $4B
Shutdown
Babylon Health
The UK-headquartered AI primary care company went public via SPAC at a $4.2B valuation in 2021 and filed for bankruptcy in 2023. Its U.S. operations were acquired by eMed. A cautionary tale on SPAC valuations and the mismatch between AI hype and Medicaid reimbursement economics.
SPAC valuation: $4.2B · Bankrupt: 2023
Acqui-Hire
Bright Health
Bright Health exited the individual insurance market entirely in 2022–2023 after unsustainable medical loss ratios, pivoting to a technology platform model. Its California Medicare Advantage business was sold. A frequent cited example of the gap between digital health platform ambitions and insurance operating realities.
IPO 2021 at ~$11B market cap · Restructured 2023
Acquisition
Iodine Software → Waystar
Iodine, a clinical AI company focused on revenue integrity and CDI, was acquired by Waystar in 2025. Considered a strong exit for investors — Waystar paid a meaningful premium for embedded, validated AI capabilities rather than build them internally. The deal validated the "AI-layer acquisition" thesis for PE-backed health IT platforms.
Acquirer: Waystar (NASDAQ: WAY) · 2025
Down Round / Distress
Nuo Health (formerly Hims & Hers adjacent)
Multiple telehealth-adjacent companies that raised large rounds in 2021 at consumer digital health valuations faced significant down rounds in 2024–2025 as profitability pressure mounted and growth decelerated. 35% of all 2025 digital health deals were flat or down rounds per Rock Health — a broad category, not a single company.
35% of 2025 deals flat or down · Source: Rock Health
Shutdown
Forward Health
Forward, the AI-powered primary care subscription startup backed by Founders Fund and Softbank, abruptly shut down in November 2023 after six years and ~$225M raised. Despite innovative technology, it could not build a sustainable unit economics model around its $149/month subscription with no insurance billing. A case study in consumer health model risk.
Total raised: ~$225M · Shutdown: November 2023
Editor's Note on Failures Coverage

We intend to expand failures and distress coverage in future issues as we build our tracking methodology. If you are aware of shutdowns, acqui-hires, or significant down rounds we should be tracking, we welcome tips. Contact information will be published with Issue No. 2.

09 Data Sources & Methodology
Primary Sources

Rock Health 2025 Annual Funding Report (January 2026); Rock Health H1 2025 Mid-Year Report (July 2025); Bessemer Venture Partners State of Health AI 2026 (January 2026); SVB Healthcare Investments & Exits Report 2026.

Secondary Sources

Crunchbase Sector Snapshot: AI Healthcare (November 2025); Fierce Healthcare digital health coverage (2025); Healthcare Brew Top 20 Rounds (December 2025); BioPharma Dive funding analysis; AHA Center for Health Innovation; STAT News M&A coverage.

Deal Data

Individual deal figures sourced from company press releases and public filings where available. Round sizes represent announced figures; valuations represent publicly disclosed post-money valuations. Some deals may include undisclosed investors or tranches.

Past Reports & Archive

Each issue of Basis Points Health covers one quarter of AI healthcare investment activity. All past reports remain freely accessible below — no paywall, no login.

Q1 2026 · Issue No. 1 · Current
AI Healthcare Capital:
2025 Year in Review
$14.2B deployed, 482 deals, 5 IPOs, and the PE roll-up wave. The full 2025 picture.
You are here
Q2 2026 · Issue No. 2 · Upcoming
H1 2026 Deal Flow
& Market Update
Q1 & Q2 2026 funding rounds, PE activity, and emerging themes. Publishing June 2026.
Coming June 2026
Q3 2026 · Issue No. 3 · Upcoming
Mid-Year Pulse:
AI Healthcare Capital
The mid-year check-in: what's accelerating, what's stalling, and where PE is moving. Publishing September 2026.
Coming Sept 2026
Q4 2026 · Issue No. 4 · Upcoming
Full Year 2026:
Annual Investment Report
The definitive annual wrap — total capital deployed, exits, and the investment thesis heading into 2027. Publishing December 2026.
Coming Dec 2026
Future Issues
2027 Coverage
Begins
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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: This report is prepared for informational and discussion purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

All figures are sourced from publicly available industry reports and company announcements as of March 2026. Market data may have changed since publication. This document is

© 2026 Basis Points Health. All rights reserved. Reproduction without express written permission is prohibited. Report compiled March 18, 2026.